Examining streamflow in lower and upper basins due to climate change and the effects of forest fires: the Manavgat basin, Türkiye

Abstract

This study examines the streamflow changes caused by a forest fire and climate variability in Manavgat basin, Mediterranean Region, in 2021. In this study, annual and seasonal streamflow changes were investigated using the time trend method developed with the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) algorithm. The study findings show that forest fires and climate change have statistically significant effects on streamflow. The forest fires caused a 45.3% increase in flow in the upper basin and a 10% increase in the lower basin compared to the calibration period. Climate change impacts were found to be at a similar level. This result means that forest fires have a statistically significant effect on streamflow and climate change has a considerable, similar effect. In addition, the performance data obtained with the MARS model (R2 = 0.854) show that this model can be used for future studies.